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In front of Telmesomethinggirl but largely whacked before and since this term was Heaven Help Us, winner of the Coral Cup a year ago. Like the favourite, she brings Festival-winning form to the party and her form string at this intermediate distance is 12. She seems better going left-handed and with just a little ease in the ground, conditions she’ll get here.
Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.
Watching horse races is a big part of British culture for centuries. Just as exciting is horserace betting, which allows you to back your favourite horse and jockey by placing bets at your bookie shop, or log in and place bets on your sports betting website. The Playright team features the best betting sites, and everything you need to know for betting on this sport of kings. The trend factor which had produced 7+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +68.50 is when runners had 0 career places with the jockey. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32. The Flat jockeys’ championship takes winners of both Flat and all-weather races taking place from the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket (May 4, 2024) and runs until British Champions Day at Ascot (October 19, 2024).
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
He really had to step at a few of the obstacles, but his engine proved far superior to his other graded rivals. Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
His form is in another postcode to his rivals in a market still trying to get him beaten with the wonderful but past his best Altior and a sizeable group of second division chasers. A horse like Fakir D’Oudairies, who is 20/1 NRNB in a place because he’s more likely to fly Ryanair, might be a feasible hail mary in a race loaded with if’s and but’s. Three runs, three wins, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 (twice) company, beating the right horses with nonchalance. He travels like a dream, jumps very well and, if he faces the starter at Cheltenham, will have managed more runs this season than in the previous two combined. A place strike rate of 36% is more compelling, and a majority of runners have performed at least close to market expectation. Notably, the big guns – Chantry House, Champ – have run very well.
Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.
Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established. ZENTA is an interesting runner here for the same stable and JP McManus’ retained rider Mark Walsh takes the ride. She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections. She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong. The overall performance was impressive considering how much she did wrong, and I expect her to massively improve for it.
Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields. Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run. If, on the other hand, there was no obvious pace horse – or a single front runner – we should probably be more interested in the 111% fast finisher, which has shown its ability to quicken takingly off a pedestrian pace.
However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band. LH – Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we’ve not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.
You can also place single bets from the Bet Slip – just click the price in the Bet Slip. Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool. This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams. The area surrounding Cheltenham racecourse is one of idyllic beauty thanks to undulating hills, wild woodland and babbling streams. Cleeve Hill for example, where the Gold Cup originated, is the highest point both of the Cotswolds hill range and in Gloucestershire.
That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above). Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.
The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and Bolts Up Daily which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.
Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old. He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance. The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71. The leading jockey in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Jimmy Styles (2009) and Redford (2010). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, Paul Mulrennan has ridden 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Allan has ridden 12 without a winner.
Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third. HERMES BOY chased home subsequent Cheltenham winner I Like To Move It when finishing 2nd at Worcester 5 weeks ago. It is also worth noting that he ran well on debut over this Course and Distance on his bumper debut last season and if he can build on his debut over timber, he should win this race that looks to lack any real depth.
Another thing to consider is that new sports betting sites are more likely to offer generous offers to new punters (read our BlackType review or the Karamba sports review for more details). IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50. Recently purchased by top owner J P McManus, she can extend her winning sequence. The daughter of Shantou displayed her immense ability with a smart success at Punchestown in January, giving a pair of well-touted geldings weight and scoring with plenty in hand.
He’s officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don’t like about his profile is that it’s a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it’s a weird niggle I can’t quite shake. That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he’s got plenty of class.
